Why Does My Stocktake Show a Variance Every Single Month?
Updated: 2 days ago
You run the stocktake. The numbers don’t match. There’s a gap between what the stock should be and what’s actually on the shelf, and there it is again, the same as last month, and the month before that.
Most operators have learned to live with it. A bit of variance is “normal”. It gets written off as shrinkage, wastage, the cost of running a busy bar.
But a variance that turns up every single month isn’t random. It’s telling you something specific, and once you know how to read it, it’s fixable.
What a Stock Variance Actually Is
Your theoretical stock is what you should have left: opening stock, plus everything delivered, minus everything sold and any recorded waste. Your actual stock is what you physically count.
The variance is the difference between the two. If you want the exact formula spelled out, it’s set out in Gross Profit & Where Profit Goes: Common Questions
A small gap is expected. A consistent, repeating gap is not. It means stock, and the cash tied up in it, is leaving your business through a route you haven’t identified yet.
The Seven Places a Monthly Variance Comes From
Counting and process errors. Different people counting in different ways. Counts taken at different points relative to deliveries. Cases counted as units. Areas missed entirely.
EPOS and recipe errors. Products and recipes programmed into the till that don’t match what’s actually served. If the till rings a 250ml glass of wine as a 175ml, or a double as a single, the variance is built in before you’ve sold a thing.
Delivery discrepancies. Short deliveries signed for as complete. Substitutions accepted without being recorded. Credits for missing or damaged stock that were never claimed.
Over-pouring and over-portioning. Free-poured spirits, a heavy hand on the wine, a kitchen plating by eye instead of by weight.
Unrecorded waste. Breakages, spillage, line cleaning, staff drinks, comps and dumps, with none of it logged.
Unrecorded transfers. Stock moved between bars, sites or the kitchen with no paperwork behind it.
Theft. The cause everyone assumes first, and in my experience usually the smallest of the seven. Worth ruling out. Rarely the real answer.
For a different way of grouping the same problem (lost, missed or taken), see Beverage Stock Deficiencies: What the Number Is Actually Telling You.
What a Small Variance Is Actually Worth
Take a bar turning over £20,000 a week in wet sales. Say the stocktake shows a 2% liquor variance, inside the range plenty of operators accept as normal.
2% of £20,000 is £400 a week
That’s £1,733 a month
And £20,800 a year
Gone. Not to one dramatic cause, but to a 35ml pour here, an unclaimed credit there, a wastage log nobody fills in. Small, repeating, invisible.
The P&L shows you the result. It never shows you the route.
Why Measuring It Won’t Fix It
This is the trap.
A stocktake measures the variance. It tells you the gap exists and how big it is. It doesn’t tell you why, and it certainly doesn’t close it.
Plenty of sites stocktake religiously and carry the exact same variance year after year. Measuring the gap and closing the gap are two different jobs. The count is the smoke alarm. It isn’t the fire engine.
What to Do About It
Standardise the count first. Same method, same time, same point in the delivery cycle. Rule out the count itself before you investigate anything else.
Check your EPOS products and recipes against reality. Not what the spec says, but what your team actually serves.
Audit one delivery cycle end to end. Check what physically arrived against the delivery note, the invoice against the signed delivery note, and whether credits are being claimed at all.
Put a real wastage process in place, and see how much “variance” was simply never written down.
Track variance by category. Spirits, wine, draught and food, separately. A single blended number hides exactly where the leak is.
Common Questions About Stock Variance
What is an acceptable stock variance in hospitality?
As a benchmark, 1 to 3% in a well-controlled operation. But the more useful question isn’t “what’s acceptable?”, it’s “is it consistent?”. A small variance that moves around is usually noise. A variance that repeats at the same level every month is systematic, and worth recovering however small the percentage looks.
Is a recurring stock variance always theft?
Rarely. Theft is one of seven common causes and usually the smallest. Process gaps, EPOS data, delivery checks, pouring and unrecorded waste account for far more in most sites.
Why does my variance change every month?
A variance that jumps around tends to point to counting inconsistency or timing: counts taken at different points in the delivery cycle, or different people counting in different ways. Standardising the count usually settles it.
Will a more expensive stocktaking service fix it?
No. Any stocktake measures the variance. Closing it is a separate piece of work: identifying the operational cause and changing the process that creates it.
See also:
I'm David Holden. I've spent 30 years working across hospitality audit and operations, helping hotels, pubs, restaurants and bars identify where profit is being lost and put practical controls in place to stop it.
